Covariation among demographic and climate parameters in whiskered auklets <i>Aethia pygmaea</i>
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Annual survival rate and other demographic parameters of whiskered auklets Aethia pygmaea , a small planktivorous seabird, were measured at Buldir Island Alaska during 1992–2003 to provide comparative information for auk life history studies and to test for links among climate, age, productivity and survival. Using two 9 m mistnets, we captured and recaptured 384 adult and 193 sub‐adult (one year old, a known‐age component of our sample) birds as they arrived at the colony after dark during May and June (1,730 capture events). The best fitting model indicated a lower initial survival rate over the first year following marking (0.708±0.036 SE), and subsequent survival (mean 0.835±0.029) covarying with the Aleutian Low Pressure climate Index, with higher auklet survival in years with weak low pressure over the Aleutian Islands. Annual survival rate varied from 0.726±0.127 in 1998–99 to 0.994±0.077 in 1994–95, rates similar to those previously reported for least A. pusilla and crested auklets A. cristatella . A model based only on recaptures of known‐age birds indicated a lower local survival estimate over the first year following marking (age one to two years), with no other age‐effects on survival. Breeding propensity by age inferred from recaptures of birds with fully‐developed brood patches that were originally marked as sub‐adults (one year olds) indicated 53% breeding at age two, 94% breeding at age 3, 97% breeding at age 4 and 100% breeding thereafter. The sex ratio of the sampled birds was significantly male biased (60/40), likely due to differences in behaviour between males and females during the incubation stage. Taken together, our data indicate that whiskered auklet survival and productivity covaried with continuous variation in large‐scale climatic conditions, the mechanism being either negative effects of stormy North Pacific weather or indirect effects on food supplies.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".