Enabling Industrial Ecology through the Forecasting of Durable Goods Disposal: Televisions as an Exemplar Case Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract A lack of understanding of the waste flow of durable goods complicates decision making, especially in the face of technological change and obsolescence. To address the problem, this study considers the modeling of the waste flow of durable goods, using televisions to illustrate the requirements for forecasting and the magnitude of the associated uncertainty. A combination of laws in various jurisdictions and the emergence of alternate technology trajectories for televisions—the flat panel display and phase‐out of analogue broadcasting— make this example particularly timely. The findings suggest that the reuse of lead‐containing cathode ray tube (CRT) glass is worth consideration, even though the adoption of flat panel TV technology will eliminate this controversial waste stream at some point in the future. The findings also indicate the range of the quantity of waste that can be displaced from municipal landfills and requires an alternative collection infrastructure, important information for both developing a collection infrastructure and processing alternatives to extract the residual value of the discarded televisions. Résumé L'ignorance du flux des déchets des biens durables rend la prise de décision difficile, surtout au regard du contexte technologique actuel marqué par l'obsolescence et le changement. La présente étude, qui s'appuie sur la gestion des déchets de télévision pour mettre en exergue les impératifs d'une approche préventive et l'ampleur de l'incertitude qu'elle comporte, se propose d'aborder le problème sous l'angle d'une modélisation du flux des déchets des biens durables. L'exemple utilisé est d'autant plus indiqué qu'on note une combinaison de lois dans diverses juridictions et l'apparition des lignes de technologie alternative pour la télévision, avec l'affichage sur écrans plats et l'abandon progressif de la radiodiffusion analogique. Les conclusions de notre étude indiquent que la réutilisation des tubes cathodiques en verre contenant du plomb (CRT) est une solution qui mérite d'être envisagée, même s'il est vrai que l'adoption de la technologie des écrans plats éliminera, avec le temps, ce flux de déchets. Les résultats montrent également qu'il faudra disposer de beaucoup d'informations pour développer de nouvelles infrastructures de collectes et de traitements des déchets (par exemple les télévisions en panne) qui ne pourront plus être déposés dans les décharges municipales, et pour l'extraction de leur valeur résiduelle.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".