A new paleoecological approach to reconstruct long-term history of spruce budworm outbreaks
Bibliographic record
Abstract
A new paleoecological indicator was used for retracing the long-term history of spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.) outbreaks from forest humus. Macrofossil analyses were performed on 28 forest soil profiles (1020 cm) collected in four balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.) stands located north of Lake Saint-Jean, Quebec. Direct evidence of the presence of spruce budworm was found. Few pupa fragments were present in the profiles, but the most abundant and well-preserved macrofossils collected were spruce budworm feces. The feces found were associated in part with the three outbreaks that occurred during the last century around 1914, 1952, and 1979. Good correspondence was obtained between the macrofossil results and the known dynamics of two stands, Lib20 and Lib23. However, the method failed to detect specific outbreaks in the other two stands, Lib21 and Lib24. A complementary macrofossil study was conducted on deeper humus profiles (4770 cm) collected on two islands of Mingan Archipelago. The outbreak history of the last century was retraced, and it was established that spruce budworm was present in the Mingan Archipelago since at least 1520 years BP. The greatest numbers of spruce budworm feces were found in the first 20 cm of the humus profiles corresponding approximately to the 20th century period. Afterward, an important reduction in numbers of feces was observed. This may be attributable to lower levels of spruce budworm populations before the 20th century or the intensification of decomposition with increasing humus depth.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.005 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".