Multidecadal to millennial‐scale shifts in drought conditions on the Canadian prairies over the past six millennia: implications for future drought assessment
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Three high‐resolution climatic reconstructions, based on diatom analyses from lake sediment cores from the Canadian prairies, show that shifts in drought conditions have prevailed on centennial to millennial time scales for at least the past six millennia. These shifts in mean aridity exhibit broad regional synchrony, with particularly pronounced shifts at all sites between ∼1700–2000 cal. yr bp and ∼3600–3900 cal. yr bp , as well as at ∼5400–5500 cal. yr bp for the two sites which extend back to at least 6000 cal. yr bp . The two Saskatchewan lakes exhibited significant coherence in both the timing and direction of these shifts, whereas inferred changes at the westernmost site in Alberta were significantly correlated to the Saskatchewan sites, but opposite in sign, and exhibited more high‐frequency variation on the scale of centuries. The mechanisms behind these abrupt shifts in aridity are poorly understood, but may be linked to changes in oceanic–atmospheric interactions that influence the mean position of the jetstream and the associated storm tracks. Natural shifts in mean climatic conditions may accelerate with increasing carbon dioxide levels intensifying the likelihood of extreme droughts in North American prairies.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".