Patterns and predictors of change in outcome measures in clinical trials in scleroderma: An individual patient meta‐analysis of 629 subjects with diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To examine the range and responsiveness to change of clinical outcome measures and study predictors of clinical response in patients with diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis (dcSSc) in the context of clinical trials. METHODS: Data were combined from 629 patients with dcSSc who participated in 7 multicenter clinical therapeutic trials. Trials used common outcome measures: modified Rodnan skin thickness score (MRSS), Health Assessment Questionnaire disability index (HAQ DI), patient's global assessment of disease activity, pulmonary function tests (forced vital capacity, diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide), hand span, and oral aperture. RESULTS: The combined database included 629 patients (82% women, mean ± SD age 46.5 ± 11.8 years, mean ± SD disease duration 19.4 ± 15.9 months). Outcomes tended to improve during trials for patients with more severe disease at study entry and to worsen for patients with less severe disease at entry. Disease duration was mildly negatively predictive of change in MRSS at 6 months (r = -0.27, P < 0.001), and substantial bidirectional variation in change in MRSS and HAQ DI score was seen across the spectrum of disease duration. Sixty-three percent of patients with "early" disease (disease duration <18 months) had a decline in MRSS, and 37% had an increase in MRSS. Eighty-one percent of patients with "late" disease (disease duration ≥ 18 months) had a decline in MRSS, and 19% had an increase in MRSS. Multivariate mixed models did not demonstrate that any baseline variables were strongly predictive of subsequent outcome. CONCLUSION: Among patients with dcSSc enrolled in clinical trials, standard outcome measures tend to improve in those with more severe disease at study entry and to worsen in those with less severe disease at entry. Overall, the MRSS improves during trials, while HAQ DI scores and lung function are mostly static. None of these variables, including disease duration, reliably identifies groups of subjects whose MRSS will predictably increase or decrease in the course of a clinical trial. These findings have important implications for clinical trial design in scleroderma.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.014 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".