Tree-ring evidence extends the historic northern range limit of severe defoliation by insects in the aspen stands of western Quebec, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
A dendrochronological reconstruction of insect outbreaks was conducted along a latitudinal gradient from 46°N to 54°N in the boreal forest of western Quebec, Canada. Tree-ring chronologies of the host species, trembling aspen ( Populus tremuloides Michx.), were constructed to identify periods of severe defoliation and comparisons were made with tree-ring chronologies of nonhost species. In addition, the frequency of white and narrow rings was used to further confirm the occurrence of insect outbreaks at these latitudes. Some major outbreaks occurred in relatively close synchrony at the regional scale, but the initiation year, intensity, and extent of the outbreaks varied spatially. For example, the 1950s outbreaks were observed from 1951 to 1952 at 46°N, from 1953 to 1954 at 47°N, and from 1954 to 1956 at 48°N. Other major outbreaks like the 1964 and 1980 outbreaks were fairly well synchronized at northern latitudes. The observed outbreaks in trembling aspen stands at 54°N also provided clear evidence that severe insect defoliation occurs much further north than the currently reported range limit, that is, between 49°N and 51°N, of the most important trembling aspen defoliator, the forest tent caterpillar ( Malacosoma disstria Hubner). Our study demonstrated that careful identification of white rings in host species can provide valid information allowing the expansion of the forestry insect inventory database both at temporal and spatial scales.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".