Modeling number of firefighters responding to an incident using artificial neural networks
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Purpose – A feed-forward back-propagation neural network (NN) is proposed to model number of firefighters responding to different fire incidents. Such a predictor model can estimate number of firefighter personnel required to tackle new incidents. This a priori information at the time of dispatch can help saving unnecessary efforts in low-risk incidents while focussing on high-risk ones to reduce overall damages and injuries caused by the fire incidents. Design/methodology/approach – A fully connected multilayer NN was adapted as the prediction model. The network was trained on a large number of fire incident records reported in Toronto area between 2000 and 2006 and then its performance was evaluated on another set of never seen records. Two types of prediction were done to model number of responding personnel: a rough category prediction and an exact number prediction. Findings – Results obtained reported a very promising ability of this approach to model number of firefighters responding to a fire incident. Originality/value – Such a model can significantly reduce uncertainties on the requirements needed for tackling a fire incident once it is reported.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".