Impact of a spruce budworm outbreak in balsam fir and subsequent stand development over a 40-year period
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Nine 0.04-ha plots were established in 1956 (age 35 years) in a balsam fir (Abies balsamea [L.] Mill.) stand in northwestern New Brunswick, Canada to determine the impact of an uncontrolled spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana [Clem.]) outbreak on stand development. The plots were measured annually from 1956 to 1961 and at five-year intervals from 1965 to 1995. Moderate to severe defoliation occurred from 1951 to 1957 and again in 1975 to 1977, 1981, and 1986 to 1988. Budworm-caused mortality from 1956 to 1961 (age 35 to 40 years) varied considerably among plots, reducing volume by 35 to 113 m 3 /ha (34%-84%), and resulting in a wide range of post-outbreak plot densities. Plots were grouped into three post-budworm outbreak (1965, age 45 years) basal area classes, of ≤ 20 m 2 /ha, 21 to 27 m 2 /ha, and ≥ 28 m 2 /ha, to examine stand recovery. Recovery of volume up to age 60 years ranged from 72 to 132 m 3 /ha, in the lowest to highest basal area classes, respectively. From age 60 to 75 years, five plots declined in volume due to the onset of stand break-up and four plots increased in volume. By age 60 years, survivor growth was greatest in the high basal area plots, ranging from 6.2 to 9.0 m 3 /ha/yr in seven plots, versus 2.6 to 3.2 m 3 /ha/yr in two low basal area plots. From age 60 to 75 years, survivor growth averaged only 2.8 to 5.2 m 3 /ha/yr, and the stand exhibited major decline, with 63%, 74%, and 78% mortality of fir ≤ 15 cm DBH in the low to high basal area plots, respectively. Budworm-caused "thinning" in the 1950s largely determined subsequent stand development and the rate of stand break-up 25 to 35 years later. The timing and rate of natural stand decline was strongly influenced by post-outbreak stand density. Key words: budworm-caused mortality, stand structure, stand development, growth, mortality, stand density
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".