A demographic analysis of a southern snowshoe hare population in a fragmented habitat: evaluating the refugium model
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The allegedly noncyclic dynamics of southern snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus) populations may be explained by a model invoking habitat fragmentation and facultative predation (the refugium model) under which animals dispersing from patches of preferred habitat fail to establish themselves because of predation by facultative carnivores. We compared the refugium model with a revised model invoking heavy on-site predation in preferred habitat as the proximal mechanism responsible for the stability of southern snowshoe hare populations. The survival and movements of hares in a fragmented habitat in central Idaho were monitored via radiotelemetry on 6 sites differing in habitat quality (indexed by understory cover) from 1998 to 2000. In support of the revised model, predation rates were high irrespective of cover availability or hare density, and predators did not kill dispersing animals disproportionately. Furthermore, predation was focused on small hares, suggesting that poor recruitment of juveniles may be the mechanism ultimately responsible for the damped dynamics of southern snowshoe hare populations. The low survival rates we measured suggest that the population under study was undergoing a marked decline. However, the observed decline, determined by comparing study-site population estimates, was less severe, implying that the persistence of local snowshoe hare populations in some areas of the species' southern range may be influenced by metapopulation dynamics. Specifically, southern snowshoe hare populations in small patches of usable habitat may be prevented from going extinct by the arrival of immigrants from similar nearby patches.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".