A Qualitative Approach to the Study of Causal Reasoning in Natural Language
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Causal reasoning has been studied extensively in experimental cognitive psychology. Generally, the focus is on how individuals learn causal relationships in their environment through observation or interventions. Although it seems self-evident that causal beliefs about some phenomena are learnt largely through linguistic channels, to our knowledge no empirical studies have addressed this issue. In this paper we investigate causal reasoning that is embedded in naturally occurring language. We focus on genetic counselling for cancer, in which complex relationships between genes, medical interventions, and cancer are communicated by health professionals to clients. We borrow the idea of graphical causal maps from previous experimental studies and show that they can be applied to the study of causal reasoning in naturally occurring talk. We see this study as complementing existing experimental research, while maintaining that the study of causal structures embedded in naturalistic language adds an important dimension to our understanding of causal reasoning.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.027 | 0.040 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.004 | 0.020 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.006 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.007 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".