Monitoring Agricultural Risk in Canada Using L-Band Passive Microwave Soil Moisture from SMOS
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Soil moisture from Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) passive microwave satellite data was assessed as an information source for identifying regions experiencing climate-related agricultural risk for a period from 2010 to 2013. Both absolute soil moisture and soil moisture anomalies compared to a 4-yr SMOS satellite baseline were used in the assessment. The 4-yr operational period of SMOS was wetter than the 30-yr climate normal in many locations, particularly in the late summer for most regions and in the spring for the province of Manitoba. This leads to a somewhat unrepresentative baseline that skews anomaly measures at different parts of the growing season. SMOS soil moisture does, however, show a clear trend where extremes are present, with drier-than-average conditions during periods that drought and dry soil risks were identified and wetter-than-average conditions when flooding and excess moisture were present. Areas where extreme weather events caused crop losses were identifiable using SMOS soil moisture, both at the provincial and regional scales. The variability in soil moisture between at-risk areas and normal areas is very small but consistent, both geographically and over time, making SMOS a good real-time indicator for risk assessment.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".