An Improved Method to Obtain Reliable Production and EUR Prediction for Wells with Short Production History in Tight/Shale Reservoirs
Bibliographic record
Abstract
URTeC 1563140 Horizontal wells with multistage fracturing completion, a relatively mature technology, have been applied to the development of tight/shale reservoirs for years. However, it still remains an industry challenge to reasonably predict future production profiles and expected ultimate recoveries (EURs) in very tight wells. Recently, a number of new methods, being either empirical or analytical, have been introduced to the industry. However, doubts have been raised for their suitability in wells having production history less than 2 to 3 years. This paper presents an improved method based on Valko’s Stretch Exponential Production Decline (SEPD) by employing a new specialized plot to find all parameters that are essential to production forecast. This newly developed method (also called the Modified SEPD Method or YM-SEPD Method) is much easier to use, and most importantly it will yield a more reliable production forecast and EUR estimation in wells having very short production history, compared to all other currently available methods. Hundreds of horizontal wells including both oil and gas wells, from various formations (Cadomin, Montney, Notikewin, Cardium, Barnett Shale etc.) and under different hydraulic fracturing conditions, have been analyzed using this YM-SEPD Method. Results have indicated that both EURs and production forecasts can be easily predicted for wells having two to three years of production history. For wells having less than 2 years of production history, this YM-SEPD method will also be able to yield a reasonable production prediction by coupling it with another empirical method. A close examination on characteristics of the production decline curve, derived from this YM-SEPD method, has revealed the reasons of why this improved method can better predict production performance and EUR in tight horizontal wells. Furthermore, this YM-SEPD method can also provide a very useful mean of identifying the PSS flow of horizontal wells in very tight reservoirs. Both real and synthetic oil & gas well examples are presented in the paper to illustrate the advantages of using this improved method.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".