Evaluation of potential meteorological triggers of large landslides in sensitive glaciomarine clay, eastern Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. Heavy rains spread over some interval preceding large landslides in sensitive glaciomarine clay in eastern Canada are often noted as a triggering or causative factor in case studies or research reports for individual landslides, although the quantity or duration of the triggering rain event has never been characterized adequately. We selected five large landslide events that occurred in the glaciomarine clay in eastern Canada, and calculated cumulative antecedent precipitation for intervals ranging between one and 365 days preceding each event. We also calculated the antecedent precipitation values for every other day in the record, and computed the relative rank of the landslide day within the complete record. Our results show that several intervals for each landslide event are highly ranked – including those preceding a presumably earthquake-triggered landslide – but overall the rankings were highly variable, ranging between 99% and 6%. The set of highest-ranking intervals are unique for each event, including both short and long-term cumulative precipitation. All of the landslides occurred in the spring months, and the release of sequestered surface and ground water during the spring ground thaw may be related to the timing of the large landslides, so that the evolution of ground frost in the early winter may be of interest for landslide prediction. We found no simple precipitation threshold for triggering large landslides in sensitive glaciomarine clay in eastern Canada, suggesting that some complex temporal and spatial combination of pre-conditions, external energy (e.g. earthquakes), precipitation triggers and other factors such as ground frost formation and thaw are required to trigger a landslide.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".