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Record W2043448684 · doi:10.2118/0906-0018-jpt

Comments: Unconventional Growth

2006· article· en· W2043448684 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
John Donnelly

Bibliographic record

VenueJournal of Petroleum Technology · 2006
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEnergy
TopicGlobal Energy and Sustainability Research
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsPetroleum industryOil sandsConsolidation (business)Panel discussionFossil fuelUnconventional oilOil reservesExhibitionOil productionOfficerEconomicsBusinessNatural resource economicsAgricultural economicsPetroleumEngineeringPolitical scienceAccountingLawPetroleum engineeringGeographyWaste managementGeologyArchaeology

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

This year's SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition (ATCE) in San Antonio features panel discussions on several critical issues facing the industry, including the classification of reserves, the development of young professionals, and the increasing importance of heavy oil in the global production equation. Plenary and panel sessions at ATCE offer a good temperature check of the industry. Five years ago, "e-business" was a hot topic, and 10 years ago, industry consolidation and emerging gas technology drew interest. The Opening General Session at this year's ATCE—titled "Heavy Oil: From Rock Face to Fuel Pumps"—will feature a panel of experts discussing the challenges that heavy and ultra heavy oil present as well as comments on related technology development and R&D efforts. With global demand rising steadily, conventional reservoirs overtaxed, and oil prices buoyant, heavy oil, as Marathon President and Chief Executive Officer Clarence P. Cazalot points out, has grown from a marginal production play a few years ago to one of increasing importance (see page 24). The conventional wisdom sees heavy oil accounting for a growing share of glob-al production. In a report issued last month, Cambridge Energy Research Assocs. contends that world oil production capacity could increase by as much as 25% over the next decade with unconventional supplies such as heavy oil, oil sands, and gas liquids accounting for a major portion of the increase. With high oil prices making development of once-marginal resources more economic, unconventional liquids could go from 25% of the world's oil supply today to almost 40% by 2015, the report said. Extra heavy production capacity is predicted to more than double from 1.9 million BOPD this year to 4.7 million BOPD in 2015. Growth in unconventional supplies from Canada, primarily from oil sands, is booming. Total Canadian oil production is projected to increase from the current 2.5 million BOPD to 4.6 million BOPD in 2015 and to 4.9 million BOPD by 2020, according to the Canadian Assn. of Petroleum Producers. Oil sands output, now at more than 1 million BOPD, is forecast to rise to 3.5 million BOPD by 2015 and to 4 million BOPD by 2020, making up more than 80% of total Canadian production. That growth, along with the shift from conventional oil production to oil sands and synthetic crude, will have a major impact not only on pipeline capacity but also on refinery configurations. An article beginning on page 58 of this month's issue catalogs that heavy oil and oil sands growth and describes some of the accompanying technical challenges involved. Canada's bright production outlook has led to a series of acquisitions by major companies as well as an increase in R&D in the region. Canadian Natural Resources, Husky Energy, and Nexen are funding a 3-year, U.S. $9.6 million project at the Petroleum Technology Research Center in Regina, Canada, to research vapor heavy oil extraction, which uses solvent gases such as butane or propane to reduce heavy oil's viscosity. And last month, Sonic Environmental Solutions created a subsidiary to focus on the application of sonic-generator technology there. Chevron recently scooped up several heavy oil leases in the Athabasca region of northern Alberta with an estimated 7.5 billion bbl of oil in place. Shell has been particularly active. It paid U.S. $400 million earlier this year for oil sands properties in northern Alberta, and in July, it acquired BlackRock Ventures Inc. of Calgary through a subsidiary. Last month, it began working with its joint-venture partners to expand its Athabasca Oil Sands project to increase output there to 550,000 BOPD.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.004
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.036
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Not applicable · Consensus signal: Not applicable
GenreCandidate signal: Commentary · Consensus signal: Commentary
Teacher disagreement score0.091
Threshold uncertainty score0.305

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0040.036
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.001
Bibliometrics0.0010.001
Science and technology studies0.0050.002
Scholarly communication0.0040.005
Open science0.0020.003
Research integrity0.0160.012
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0910.038

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.006
GPT teacher head0.245
Teacher spread0.240 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designNot applicable
Domainnot available
GenreCommentary

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations1
Published2006
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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