Natural, innate improvements in multiple sclerosis disability
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Improvements in multiple sclerosis (MS) disability have recently been reported in immunomodulatory drug (IMD) clinical trials and observational studies. However, improvements have rarely been examined in natural history or IMD naive patients. We investigated annual and biennial improvements in Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores in British Columbia, Canada. METHODS: The British Columbian MS database was accessed for definite MS patients (1980-2009). Consecutive IMD-free EDSS scores one and two years apart (± 3 months) were examined; improvements (≥0.5,≥1,≥2 EDSS points) and sustained improvements (confirmed at one year) were described. The influence of patient characteristics on improvements was examined using logistic regression. RESULTS: From 16,132 EDSS scores, 7653 yearly and 5845 biennial EDSS intervals were available for 2961 and 2382 patients respectively. Of the yearly intervals, 14.9% showed an improvement (≥0.5 points), 8.3% ≥1 point and 2.2% ≥2 point improvement, with nearly half being sustained. Corresponding worsenings were observed in 32.9%, 20.5% and 7.9% respectively, with stability in just over half (53%). Biennial findings were similar. Characteristics generally associated with improvements included: female sex, younger age, shorter disease duration, relapsing-onset and presence of moderate disability (compared with mild or advanced) and a previous episode of worsening (disassociated from a relapse). However, improvements were also observed after periods of stability and in primary-progressive MS. CONCLUSION: Improvements in MS disability over one or two years are not unusual. We suggest the term 'innate improvements'. Our findings have implication for the design of clinical trials and observational studies in MS targeting improvements on the EDSS.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".