Economic impact of the 1998 ice storm on the eastern Ontario maple syrup industry
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Partial equilibrium analysis was used to characterize the economic impact of the 1998 ice storm on the maple syrup industry in Eastern Ontario. Stochastic simulation is used to generate interval estimates of damages. We compare government expenditures on assistance programs to the estimated industry losses. Total losses to the industry in terms of changes in producers' surplus and capital losses for the baseline scenario were estimated to be $5.5 (± $0.5) million. Extensive sensitivity analysis was conducted. Losses were estimated to be $4.7 (± $0.4) million if recovery takes place faster than in the baseline scenario. Losses were estimated to be $7.1 (± $0.4) million when recovery takes longer than in the baseline case. Direct government expenditures on ice storm assistance programs to this industry were approximately $7.3 million. The relevance of this type of analysis to the development of natural disaster relief policies is discussed. Key words: disaster assistance, eastern Ontario, economic, ice storm, maple syrup, producers' surplus
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".