Diagnostic Precursors to Bipolar Disorder in Offspring of Parents With Bipolar Disorder: A Longitudinal Study
Why is this work in the frame?
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Full frame distilled prediction
Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
- Candidate categories
- none
- Consensus categories
- none
- Domain
- Candidate signal: noneConsensus signal: none
- Study design
- Candidate signal: ObservationalConsensus signal: Observational
- Genre
- Candidate signal: EmpiricalConsensus signal: Empirical
- Teacher disagreement score
- 0.030
- Threshold uncertainty score
- 0.854
- Validation status
machine_predicted_unvalidated·codex-gemma-dda1882f352a
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
- Teacher spread
- 0.274 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
- Validation status
score_only:v0-immature-baseline· verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: The authors sought to identify diagnostic risk factors of manic, mixed, or hypomanic episodes in the offspring of parents with bipolar disorder ("high-risk offspring"). METHOD: High-risk offspring 6-18 years old (N=391) and demographically matched offspring (N=248) of community parents without bipolar disorder were assessed longitudinally with standardized diagnostic instruments by staff blind to parental diagnoses. Follow-up assessments were completed in 91% of the offspring (mean follow-up interval, 2.5 years; mean follow-up duration, 6.8 years). RESULTS: Compared with community offspring, high-risk offspring had significantly higher rates of subthreshold mania or hypomania (13.3% compared with 1.2%), manic, mixed, or hypomanic episodes (9.2% compared with 0.8%), and major depressive episodes (32.0% compared with 14.9%). They also had higher rates of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (30.7% compared with 18.1%), disruptive behavior disorders (27.4% compared with 15.3%), anxiety disorders (39.9% compared with 21.8%), and substance use disorders (19.9% compared with 10.1%), but not unipolar major depressive disorder (major depression with no bipolarity; 18.9% compared with 13.7%). Multivariate Cox regressions showed that in the high-risk offspring, subthreshold manic or hypomanic episodes (hazard ratio=2.29), major depressive episodes (hazard ratio=1.99), and disruptive behavior disorders (hazard ratio=2.12) were associated with subsequent manic, mixed, or hypomanic episodes. Only subthreshold manic or hypomanic episodes (hazard ratio=7.57) were associated when analyses were restricted to prospective data. CONCLUSIONS: Subthreshold manic or hypomanic episodes were a diagnostic risk factor for the development of manic, mixed, or hypomanic episodes in the offspring of parents with bipolar disorder and should be a target for clinical assessment and treatment research. Major depressive episodes and disruptive behavior disorders are also indications for close clinical monitoring of emergent bipolarity in high-risk offspring.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
The record
- Venue
- American Journal of Psychiatry
- Topic
- Bipolar Disorder and Treatment
- Field
- Medicine
- Canadian institutions
- Sunnybrook Health Science Centre
- Funders
- National Institute of Mental Health
- Keywords
- OffspringBipolar disorderHazard ratioManiaHypomaniaPsychologyPsychiatryBipolar I disorderProdromeMajor depressive disorderMedicineInternal medicineConfidence intervalMoodPregnancyPsychosis
- Has abstract in OpenAlex
- yes