Assessing five decades of change in a high Arctic parasitoid community
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Arctic ecosystems are fragile, and are particularly sensitive to the pressures of climate change. Both average temperature and precipitation have increased over the past five decades on Ellesmere Island, Nunavut, Canada in the high Arctic. Altered growth forms and increased biomass in dominant plant species on Ellesmere Island have been observed concurrent with the changing climate, but shifts in the diversity or rank abundance of plant and bird species have not been detected. Changes in diversity may take longer to appear, or may be assessed better using organisms with shorter generation times such as insects. We explored the ecological impacts of climate change on Ellesmere Island using historical and contemporary communities of ichneumonid wasps. We compared community diversity, functional composition, and body size of two common species using ichneumonid specimens collected in 1961–1965, 1980–1982, 1989–1992, and 2010. We found high compositional similarity between collections, overlapping estimates of species richness, no change in the proportion of idiobiont genera in the community, and no clear pattern in body size over time. The greatest amount of variation over time was detected in parasitoids of herbivores; proportionally fewer herbivore‐parasitizing genera were found in 2010 than in historical collections, and the two genera that were only found in one of the four collections were both parasitoids of herbivores. Our results point to the need to assess climate change effects in Arctic systems using a range of taxa, and responses to large‐scale environmental disturbances may be idiosyncratic and difficult to predict.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.030 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".