Environmental Tobacco Smoke, Active Smoking and Breast Cancer Risk: Synthesis of Current Evidence Implicates a Risk
Bibliographic record
Abstract
ISEE-0730 Background and Objective: Three authoritative reviews of active smoking and breast cancer have been published since the year 2000, but only considered data published up until 2002. They found suggestive but conflicting evidence, as has been the case historically. Since 2002, at least 40 more original epidemiologic studies have been published on smoking and breast cancer, including two major reports on ETS and breast cancer and at least six meta-analyses. The objective was to provide an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence regarding ETS, active smoking and breast cancer risk. Methods: Assessment of the weight of evidence from epidemiologic studies, meta-analyses, toxicological studies and current understanding of biologic mechanisms. Results: Among women who have never smoked, three meta-analyses have found increases of 60 to 70% for breast cancer risk among premenopausal/women under age 50 with regular, long-term exposure to ETS. Among smokers, recent studies, in particular several cohort studies, have added to the weight of evidence suggesting 10–30% increases in risk associated with higher pack-years of smoking, longer duration of smoking, smoking before first full-term pregnancy and early age of smoking commencement. Three recent meta-analyses have found 35% to 50% increases in breast cancer risk for long-term smokers with N-acetyltransferase 2 (NAT2) slow acetylation genotypes. The most recent and thorough of these analyses included pooling of individual data from 9 studies and an associated meta-analysis of 13 studies and identified relative risks among women with NAT2 slow acetylator genotype of 1.44 (95% CI 1.23–1.68) and 1.49 (95% CI 1.08–2.04), respectively, associated with the highest categories of pack-years of smoking. Conclusions: Research published since 2002 has substantially strengthened the weight of evidence in support of an increased risk of breast cancer among women who smoke and increased risk for long-term exposure to ETS among never-smokers.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.026 | 0.061 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.005 | 0.012 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.006 | 0.006 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.013 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".