Delayed timing as a strategy to avoid nest‐site competition: testing a model using data from starlings and flickers
Bibliographic record
Abstract
European starlings ( Sturnus vulgaris ) introduced to North America compete with native cavity‐nesting birds for nest sites. I examined whether natural selection could favour a strategy of delayed nesting in a population of northern flickers ( Colaptes auratus ), a native woodpecker, to reduce overlap in breeding phenology with starling competitors. I developed a mathematical model based on reproductive parameters for a population of flickers from central British Columbia, Canada. On average, 7% of flicker nests each year were usurped by starlings; daily probabilities of takeover declined through the season but were relatively low (1–2%). Flickers laid between 3 and 13 eggs and there was a negative correlation between clutch size and date. The probability of renesting after nest failure also declined during the season, but renesting intervals (2–19 days) were not associated with female age, or stage of nest loss. The model suggested that costs of delaying reproduction would outweigh benefits of an early start except when the probability of nest usurpation is very high (>75%) early in the season and declines rapidly through the summer. Thus, early laying dates should be favoured especially in northern latitudes where breeding seasons are short.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".