Modeling flight activity and population dynamics of the pine engraver, <i>Ips pini</i>, in the Great Lakes region: effects of weather and predators over short time scales
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Ascertaining the relative effects of factors such as weather and predation on population dynamics, and determining the time scales on which they operate, is important to our understanding of basic ecology and pest management. In this study, we sampled the pine engraver Ips pini (Say) (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) and its predominant predators Thanasimus dubius (F.) (Coleoptera: Cleridae) and Platysoma cylindrica (Paykull) (Coleoptera: Histeridae) in red pine plantations in Wisconsin, USA, over 2 years. We sampled both the prey and predators using flight traps baited with the synthetic aggregation pheromone of I. pini. Flight models were constructed using weather variables (temperature and precipitation), counts of bark beetles and their predators, and temporal variables to incorporate possible effects of seasonality. The number of I. pini per weekly collection period was temperature dependent and decreased with the number of predators, specifically T. dubius in 2001 and P. cylindrica in 2002. The number of predators captured each week was also weather dependent. The predators had similar seasonal phenologies, and the number of each predator species was positively correlated with the other. Including a term for the number of prey did not improve the model fits for either predator for either year. Our results suggest that exogenous weather factors strongly affect the flight activity of I. pini, but that its abundance is also affected by direct density‐dependent processes acting over weekly time scales. Adult predation during both colonization and dispersal are likely processes yielding these dynamics.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".