Effect of subsequent pregnancies on the risk of developing diabetes following a first pregnancy complicated by gestational diabetes: a population‐based study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
AIMS: Women with gestational diabetes mellitus have a high risk of developing Type 2 diabetes, secondary to post-partum progression of the chronic pancreatic ß-cell defect that underlies their presenting with dysglycaemia in pregnancy. Insulin-sensitizing therapy can decrease this risk of Type 2 diabetes, partly by offloading the secretory demand placed on the ß-cells. Conversely, however, it is not known whether the considerable secretory demands posed by the physiologic insulin resistance of a subsequent pregnancy could accelerate the progression to Type 2 diabetes. Thus, we sought to determine whether subsequent pregnancies are associated with the risk of developing diabetes following gestational diabetes. METHODS: Using a population-based administrative database, we identified all women in Ontario, Canada, whose first pregnancy was between April 2000 and March 2007 and was complicated by gestational diabetes (n = 16,817). This cohort was followed for a median 4.5 years for subsequent pregnancies and the development of diabetes. RESULTS: During follow-up, 2731 women (16.2%) developed diabetes. Gestational diabetes recurred in 41.5% of subsequent pregnancies. Interestingly, after covariate adjustment, a subsequent pregnancy was associated with a reduced risk of diabetes (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 0.68, 95%CI 0.60-0.76; P < 0.0001). Specifically, whereas each subsequent gestational diabetes pregnancy was associated with a modestly increased risk of diabetes (adjusted HR = 1.16, 95%CI 1.01-1.34; P = 0.03), each non-gestational diabetes pregnancy was associated with a significantly reduced risk of diabetes (adjusted HR=0.34, 95%CI 0.27-0.41; P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: A subsequent pregnancy is not necessarily associated with an increased risk of Type 2 diabetes following gestational diabetes. Instead, the absence of recurrent gestational diabetes in a subsequent pregnancy may identify a lessened risk of developing Type 2 diabetes in this high-risk patient population.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".