Regeneration cycles of the keystone species <i>Carnegiea gigantea</i> are linked to worldwide volcanism
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Question: We know of no study that has linked volcanic eruptions occurring anywhere worldwide and the local population cycles of any species. The keystone saguaro cactus (Carnegiea gigantea) establishes in cohorts. We test whether there is a statistical relationship between Carnegiea gigantea establishment and volcanic eruptions. Location: Northern Sonoran Desert, Arizona, USA. Methods: We use both a region‐wide dataset made up of 30 populations, and a dataset from a marginal site. We incorporate data for over 750 individuals over an area of more than 50 000 km2. We created a 111‐year time series of population peaks and troughs and correlated this over the 111‐year record with the annual Weighted Historical Dust Veil Index (WHDVI). A t‐test compared establishment patterns with the WHDVI. Results: We found a significant relationship between volcanism and C. gigantea regeneration at both the marginal site, and in the region‐wide dataset. Conclusions: We suggest that while different populations are influenced by temporary global temperature ameliorations to different extents, our results show that populations do derive significant benefits from volcanic eruptions that promote their regeneration over large portions of their range, as is also exhibited locally at our marginal site, where populations are most susceptible to the inhospitable conditions that are witnessed at the edge of their range. This paper draws a link between the population fluctuations and regeneration of a species locally with geologic events from distant parts of the earth.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".