Simulation of the 2001–02 Anomalous Intrusion in the Northeast Pacific
Bibliographic record
Abstract
A numerical model, the Parallel Ocean Program (POP) was used to run a 46-year simulation of the North Pacific Ocean beginning in January 1960. The model had a horizontal resolution of 0.25°, 28 vertical levels, and employed spectral nudging that, unlike standard nudging, nudges only specific frequency and wavenumber bands. This simulation was nudged to the mean and monthly Levitus climatology of potential temperature and absolute salinity (SA). The model was forced with the mean monthly winds, sea level pressure, net heat flux, and precipitation from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP).The simulation was used to examine the anomalous intrusions, previously observed from 2001 to 2002, of cooler and fresher (less spicy) water flowing southward along the coast of western North America. The simulated anomaly began in 1999 in the North Pacific, progressed southeastward towards the coast and then southward, at least as far south as southern California. The southward velocity signal, modulated by a strong annual cycle, reached Point Conception in 2000 while the temperature and SA anomalies arrived later, in 2002–03. The simulated velocity anomalies were eastward at about 3 cm s−1 in the northeast Pacific near 47°N in agreement with observations. Simulated coastal southward flow speeds reached 10–20 cm s−1 during the summer from 2000 to 2002.This intrusion was by far the largest to occur over the entire length of the simulation. It was also the only time during the simulation when the Victoria mode was positive (associated with enhanced flow to the east via the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO)) and the Multivariate El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Index (MEI) was negative (La Niña conditions), tending to cause a southward flow anomaly along the coast.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".