Effects of forest management legacies on spruce budworm (<i>Choristoneura fumiferana</i>) outbreaks
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The “silvicultural hypothesis” of spruce budworm ( Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.) dynamics postulates that increasing severity of spruce budworm outbreaks over the last century resulted from forest conditions created by past management activities. Yet, definitive tests of the hypothesis remain elusive. We examined spruce budworm outbreak dynamics (synchrony, periodicity, and intensity) in the 20th century using historical reconstruction from tree-ring chronologies sampled within 19 sites in a large ecoregion located on the border of Minnesota and Ontario. The study encompassed three areas affected by contrasting management legacies: a fine-grained area (Minnesota, six sites, average cut size = 17 ha), a coarse-grained area (Ontario, six sites, average cut size 10 times that of Minnesota), and a conservation zone (seven sites) with little recent harvest activity overlapping the border. Results suggest important differences in outbreak dynamics between the forest management zones that cannot be explained by differences in climate among sample sites. Budworm outbreaks within the conservation zone were more synchronous, with more trees per site affected and less frequent outbreaks than sites sampled within fine-scale managed areas. Outbreak dynamics within forests managed at coarser scales suggest a mixture of the conservation and fine-scale management zone outbreak patterns. Potential factors affecting differences in the observed outbreak patterns include forest pattern, composition, and age. Our study generally supports the silvicultural hypothesis and emphasizes that management legacy effects on spruce budworm dynamics should be observable at landscape scales, as well as at local scales.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".