Multi‐century reconstruction of fire activity in <scp>N</scp>orthern <scp>E</scp>uropean boreal forest suggests differences in regional fire regimes and their sensitivity to climate
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Summary Forest fires are one of the main disturbance agents in boreal and temperate ecosystems. To decipher large‐scale temporal and spatial patterns of past fire activity in Scandinavia, we analysed the synchronicity of dendrochoronologically reconstructed fire events in a large network of sites ( n = 62; 3296 samples, 392 individual fire years) covering a wide geographical gradient (56.5–67.0° N and 9.3–20.5° E) over AD 1400–1900. We identified large fire years ( LFY ) as years with regionally increased forest fire activity and located the geographical centres of climatic anomalies associated with synchronous LFY occurrence across the region, termed LFY centroids. The spatial pattern of LFY centroids indicated the presence of two regions with climatically mediated synchronicity of fire occurrence, located south and north from 60° N. The return intervals of LFY s in Scandinavia followed a Weibull distribution in both regions. Intervals, however, differed: a period of 40 years would carry a 0.93 probability of LFY occurrence in the southern region, but only a 0.48 probability of LFY occurrence in the northern region. Over 1420–1759, the northern region was characterized by significantly higher temporal variability in LFY occurrence than the southern region. Temporal correlation of LFY s with reconstructed average summer temperature and total precipitation was evident mainly for the northern region. LFY s in this region were associated with positive temperature and negative precipitation anomalies over Scandinavia and with colder and wetter conditions in more southern parts of the European subcontinent. Synthesis . Historical patterns of the occurrence of large fire years ( LFY ) in Scandinavia point towards the presence of two well‐defined zones with characteristic fire activity, with the geographical division at approximately 60° N. The northern and mid‐boreal forests, although exhibiting lower LFY frequencies, appeared to be more sensitive to past summer climate, as compared to the southern boreal forests. This would imply that fire regimes across Scandinavia may show an asynchronous response to future climate changes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".