Improving the accuracy of long‐term prognostic estimates in hepatitis C virus infection
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Obtaining unbiased estimates of HCV prognosis is difficult because of potential biases associated with study design and calculation methods. We propose a new method for estimating fibrosis progression rates. A Markov model with fibrosis health states (F0-F4) was created. The maximum likelihood method was used to estimate stage-specific progression rates. We compared the standard method to the new method using two well-known cohort studies. The known stage distribution at the end of follow-up was compared with stage predicted by the Markov model using both methods of calculating transition rates. We also compared rates obtained using both methods to known fibrosis rates in a series of Monte Carlo simulations. For Kenny-Walsh's study (1999), transition rates between F0-F1, F1-F2, F2-F3, and F3-F4 were 0.042, 0.045, 0.097 and 0.070 fibrosis units/year (new method) and 0.045 units/year (standard method). The new method predicted fibrosis stage and known transition rates in Monte Carlo simulations more accurately. The standard method underestimates 30-year cirrhosis rates by up to 40%. The new (Markov maximum likelihood or MML) method allows accurate estimation of stage-specific transition probabilities from the many studies in which only a single biopsy is available. Application of the method supports the hypothesis that rates of fibrosis vary between stages.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it