Improved Skill of Northern Hemisphere Winter Surface Temperature Predictions Based on Land–Atmosphere Fall Anomalies
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract A statistical forecast model, referred to as the snow-cast (sCast) model, has been developed using observed October mean snow cover and sea level pressure anomalies to predict upcoming winter land surface temperatures for the extratropical Northern Hemisphere. In operational forecasts since 1999, snow cover has been used for seven winters, and sea level pressure anomalies for three winters. Presented are skill scores for these seven real-time forecasts and also for 33 winter hindcasts (1972/73–2004/05). The model demonstrates positive skill over much of the eastern United States and northern Eurasia—regions that have eluded skillful predictions among the existing major seasonal forecast centers. Comparison with three leading dynamical forecast systems shows that the statistical model produces superior skill for the same regions. Despite the increasing complexity of the dynamical models, they continue to derive their forecast skill predominantly from tropical atmosphere–ocean coupling, in particular from ENSO. Therefore, in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, away from the influence of ENSO, the sCast model is expected to outperform the dynamical models into the foreseeable future.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".