Predictors of non-diagnostic cytology in surgeon-performed ultrasound guided fine needle aspiration of thyroid nodules
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Fine needle aspiration (FNA) is the standard of care for the diagnostic work-up of thyroid nodules but despite its proven utility, the non-diagnostic rate for thyroid FNA ranges from 6-36%. A non-diagnostic FNA is problematic for the clinician and patient because it can result in repeated procedures, multiple physician visits, and a delay in definitive treatment. Surgeon-performed FNA has been shown to be safe, cost-effective, as accurate as those performed by other clinicians, and has the added benefit of decreasing wait times to surgery. Several studies have examined rates and factors that may be predictive of a non-diagnostic cytology in non-surgeon FNA, but none have evaluated this in surgeon-performed thyroid FNA. If these factors are unique in surgeon-performed vs. non-surgeon performed thyroid FNA, then patients may be more appropriately triaged to FNA by alternate clinicians. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to determine the rate and factors predictive of a non-diagnostic FNA in surgeon performed ultrasound-guided FNA of thyroid nodules. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective review of all adult patients who underwent thyroid FNA by a staff, fellow, or resident Otolaryngologist at the University of Alberta between January 2011 and June 2013. Factors analyzed included patient factors, thyroid characteristics, nodule characteristics, and surgeon level of training and experience. Univariate and multivariate binary logistic regression analysis were performed. RESULTS: 131 patients (180 nodules) were reviewed. The non-diagnostic rate was 23%. Nodules with predominant cystic component, those less than 1 cm, and resident-performed FNA were associated with non-diagnostic cytology (p = 0.001, p = 0.02, p = 0.04 respectively). A cystic nodule was the only independent predictor of non-diagnostic FNA on multivariate analysis (OR = 4.441, 95% CI [1.785-11.045], p = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The rate of non-diagnostic thyroid FNA performed by a surgeon with ultrasound guidance is similar to other clinicians. A cystic nodule is a strong independent predictor of non-diagnostic cytology. Non-cystic nodules may particularly benefit from surgeon-performed thyroid FNA due to the high diagnostic rate and potential for earlier definitive management.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".