Recent woody invasion of wetlands on the Kenai Peninsula Lowlands, south-central Alaska: a major regime shift after 18 000 years of wet <i>Sphagnum</i>–sedge peat recruitment
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We document accelerating invasion of woody vegetation into wetlands on the western Kenai Peninsula lowlands. Historical aerial photography for 11 wetland sites showed that herbaceous area shrank 6.2%/decade from 1951 to 1968, and 11.1%/decade from 1968 to 1996. Corresponding rates for converting herbaceous area to shrubland were 11.5% and 13.7%/decade, respectively, and, for converting nonforest to forest, were 7.8% and 8.3%/decade, respectively. Black spruce ( Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP) forests on three wetland perimeters established since the Little Ice Age concluded in the 1850s. Dwarf birch shrubs at three wetland sites showed median apparent tree-ring age of 13 years, indicating recent shrub colonization at these sites. Peat cores at 24 wetland sites (basal peat ages 1840 – 18 740 calibrated years before present) indicated that these peatlands originated as wet Sphagnum –sedge fens with very little woody vegetation. Local meteorological records show a 55% decline in available water since 1968, of which one-third is due to higher summer temperatures and increased evapotranspiration and two-thirds is due to lower annual precipitation. These results suggest that wet Sphagnum–sedge fens initiating since the end of the Wisconsin glaciation began to dry in the 1850s and that this drying has greatly accelerated since the 1970s.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".