Downscaled GCM projections of winter and summer mass balance for Peyto Glacier, Alberta, Canada (2000–2100) from ensemble simulations with ECHAM5‐MPIOM
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract We apply a direct downscaling approach to generate ensembles of local‐scale glacier mass balance projections from coarse‐scale general circulation model (GCM) data. The general modes of the atmospheric circulation over a large geographical region are linked statistically to Peyto Glacier's winter and summer balance separately. Our study focuses on the generation of ensemble projections derived from simulations with ECHAM5‐MPIOM forced with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ‐ Special Report on Emission Scenarios (IPCC‐SRES) A1B and B1. The resulting ensembles of mass balance projections show a moderate increase in winter balance and a steep decrease in summer balance. Together these results suggest continued frontal recession and downwasting of Peyto Glacier and a shift of the equilibrium line altitude by at least 100 m above that estimated for the 1966–2001 period suggesting that very little of the glacier will remain by 2100. Copyright © 2008 Crown in the right of Canada. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".