EXOGENOUS REINFECTION AND RESURGENCE OF TUBERCULOSIS: A THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The importance of exogenous reinfection versus endogenous reactivation for the resurgence of tuberculosis (TB) has been a matter of ongoing debate. Previous mathematical models of TB give conflicting results on the possibility of multiple stable equilibria in the presence of reinfection, and hence the failure to control the disease even when the basic reproductive number is less than unity. The present study reconsiders the effect of exogenous reinfection, by extending previous studies to incorporate a generalized rate of reinfection as a function of the number of actively infected individuals. A mathematical model is developed to include all possible routes to the development of active TB (progressive primary infection, endogenous reactivation, and exogenous reinfection). The model is qualitatively analyzed to show the existence of multiple equilibria under realistic assumptions and plausible range of parameter values. Two examples, of unbounded and saturated incidence rates of reinfection, are given, and simulation results using estimated parameter values are presented. The results reflect exogenous reinfection as a major cause of TB emergence, especially in high prevalence areas, with important public health implications for controlling its spread.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it