Improving Program Results Through the Use of Predictive Operational Performance Indicators
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In Canada, in-depth evaluations of federal programs are intended to occur every 5 years. As such, evaluation is a periodic retrospective (lag) indicator examining results achieved versus program objectives. In a Canadian context, stand-alone evaluations have proved challenging to implement, time consuming, and not well adapted to annual management accountability needs. Consequently, there are important benefits from developing parallel ongoing operational performance measurements, complementing periodic evaluations as an integrated system. With links to program evaluations, ongoing performance feedback can include predictive (lead) indicators of progress, through operational linkages to a program’s intended long-term outcomes. The present case study examines program efficiency concerns demonstrating lead indicators as an “early warning system”—targeting problem areas, producing speedier program adjustments (including accountability and efficiency improvements) and also demonstrating potential to increase quality, timeliness, and usefulness of longer term in-depth evaluations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.058 | 0.118 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.010 | 0.009 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.007 | 0.005 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".