Fire disturbance during climate change: failure of postfire forest recovery on a boreal floodplain
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We used tree remains to document the failure of postfire forest recovery following a 1941 fire on a boreal floodplain along a third-order stream in northern Quebec. Two sites, one with postfire shrubs and the other an unburned forest, were studied. Tree remains on the floodplain and within the stream channel at the shrub site suggest the former presence of a forest stand similar to present-day vegetation at the forest site. At both sites, black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP) has been the dominant tree species, whereas eastern larch (Larix laricina (Du Roi) K. Koch) and balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.) have made up only a small proportion of all living and dead stems. Sustained tree recruitment before the mid-19th century was followed by much reduced recruitment, in synchrony with the well-documented increasing trend of winter precipitation in northern Quebec. In combination with more frequent spring floods during the 20th century, the 1941 fire at the shrub site probably reduced the density of conifer stems, increased the abundance of shrubs, and excluded the fire-sensitive balsam fir and eastern larch. The fire also abruptly increased inputs of tree remains into the stream channel. Because of low establishment rate and slow growth of postfire conifers, forest recovery towards prefire tree density is unlikely under present-day conditions. Frequent fires in boreal landscapes, along with the anticipated increase of precipitation, suggest that some floodplains and associated streams may respond similarly to future climate change.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".