Reduced Complexity HMM Filtering With Stochastic Dominance Bounds: A Convex Optimization Approach
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper uses stochastic dominance principles to construct upper and lower sample path bounds for Hidden Markov Model (HMM) filters. We consider an HMM consisting of an X-state Markov chain with transition matrix P. By using convex optimization methods for nuclear norm minimization with copositive constraints, we construct low rank stochastic matrices P and P̅ so that the optimal filters using P,P̅ provably lower and upper bound (with respect to a partially ordered set) the true filtered distribution at each time instant. Since P and P̅ are low rank (say R), the computational cost of evaluating the filtering bounds is O(X R) instead of O(X <sup xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">2</sup> ). A Monte-Carlo importance sampling filter is presented that exploits these upper and lower bounds to estimate the optimal posterior. Finally, explicit bounds are given on the variational norm between the true posterior and the upper and lower bounds in terms of the Dobrushin coefficient.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".