Partitioning the effects of species loss on community variability using multi‐level selection theory
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The temporal variability of ecological communities may depend on species richness and composition due to a variety of statistical and ecological mechanisms. However, ecologists currently lack a general, unified theoretical framework within which to compare the effects of these mechanisms. Developing such a framework is difficult because community variability depends not just on how species vary, but also how they covary, making it unclear how to isolate the contributions of individual species to community variability. Here I develop such a theoretical framework using the multi‐level Price equation, originally developed in evolutionary biology to partition the effects of group selection and individual selection. I show how the variability of a community can be related to the properties of the individual species comprising it, just as the properties of an evolving group can be related to the properties of the individual organisms comprising it. I show that effects of species loss on community variability can be partitioned into effects of species richness (random loss of species), effects of species composition (non‐random loss of species with respect to their variances and covariances), and effects of context dependence (post‐loss changes in species’ variances and covariances). I illustrate the application of this framework using data from the Biodiversity II experiment, and show that it leads to new conceptual and empirical insights. For instance, effects of species richness on community variability necessarily occur, but often are swamped by other effects, particularly context dependence.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".