Prediction of Individual Travel Mode with Evidential Neural Network Model
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
An evidential neural network (ENN) for predicting individual travel mode is presented. This model can be used to support management decision making and to build predictions under uncertainty related to changes in people's behavior, the economic context, or the environment and policy. The presented model uses individuals’ characteristics, transportation mode specifications, and data related to places of work and residence. The data set analyzed was taken from a survey conducted in 2007 and contains information on the daily mobility (e.g., from home to work) of individuals who either lived or worked in Luxembourg. Individual characteristics were extracted to relate daily mobility (journeys between home and work, in particular) to the characteristics of working individuals. Information about public transportation specification and some geographical particularities of residential areas and workplaces were used. Rates of successful prediction obtained by the ENN and several alternative approaches were compared by cross-validation. The results showed that the ENN was superior to the studied alternatives.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.007 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it