Predicting the frequency of storm surges and extreme sea levels in the northwest Atlantic
Bibliographic record
Abstract
A 40 year hindcast of storm surges in the northwest Atlantic and adjacent shelf seas is performed using a 2‐D nonlinear barotropic ocean model forced by realistic 6 hourly winds and air pressures. This hindcast is used to generate spatial maps of the return level of storm surges and also to estimate the return period of extreme total sea levels. The accuracy of the hindcast is assessed in two ways. First, the standard deviation of the difference between the observed residuals (total sea level minus tide) and the hindcast is calculated at 24 tide gauge locations. A typical error standard deviation is 8 cm. Second, the 40 year return level of observed residuals is compared to that of the hindcast surges. The predicted 40 year return levels are typically within 10 cm of observed return levels at the 24 observation locations. A spatial map of the 40 year return level of surges is presented for the northwest Atlantic. It identifies the regions exposed to the largest surges. Total sea levels are reconstructed using (1) the hindcast surges and (2) tides and higher‐frequency variability predicted from short, observed sea level records. An extremal analysis of the reconstructed total sea levels shows that their 40 year return levels are in good agreement (within about 10 cm) with the levels calculated from multidecadal observed sea level records. This means that given a short record anywhere within the model domain, or results from a good tidal model, 40 year return levels can be estimated.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".