The decrease in mid-stratospheric tropical ozone since 1991
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. While global stratospheric O3 has begun to recover, there are localized regions where O3 has decreased since 1991. Specifically, we use measurements from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) for the period 1991–2005 and the NASA Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) for the period 2004–2013 to demonstrate a significant decrease in O3 near ~ 10 hPa in the tropics. O3 in this region is very sensitive to variations in NOy, and the observed decrease can be understood as a spatially localized, yet long-term increase in NOy. In turn, using data from MLS and from the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (ACE), we show that the NOy variations are caused by decreases in N2O which are likely linked to long-term variations in dynamics. To illustrate how variations in dynamics can affect N2O and O3, we show that by decreasing the upwelling in the tropics, more of the N2O can photodissociate with a concomitant increase in NOy production (via N2O + O(1D) → 2NO) at 10 hPa. Ultimately, this can cause an O3 decrease of the observed magnitude.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".