Evaluation of the European Central Bank’s Monetary Policy in Terms of Taylor Rule
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to analyze, using Taylor rule, the impact of European Union (EU) enlargement on national banking systems and the optimal monetary policy interest rate in an ideal monetary union composed by all 27 EU states. We employ the inflation, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the GDP forecast from EU 27 for the 2001-2011 period. Considering the pillars mentioned before, namely inflation and GDP, the monetary policy from the Euro Area may be described by a rule which uses gap on both, inflation and output. A starting point is the Taylor rule (1993), whose main idea is that central banks react to inflation deviations from target levels. We evaluate the impact of the economic environment and its deviations on national banking systems and on banking competition. The results are included in the trend of the previous research. Interest rate estimation using Taylor rule for European Union countries led to a significant difference, in line with current evolutions and disparities. This article contributes to the scientific knowledge both with a longer analyzed period and also with a review that includes all the countries from EU.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.015 | 0.036 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".