Permafrost and climate change at Herschel Island (Qikiqtaruq), Yukon Territory, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Herschel Island, in the southern Beaufort Sea, is dominantly a glacier ice thrust feature composed of ice‐rich, perennially frozen sediments. Climate data are available for Herschel Island from 1899 to 1905 and 1995–2006. Air temperatures at Herschel Island are similar to sites on the adjacent mainland. Late winter snow depth is only about 20 cm, or half the depth on the mainland, and local topography defines the sites of annually recurring snowdrifts. Near‐surface ground temperatures, thaw depths, and ground ice contents have been investigated over a 750‐m transect leading up Collinson Head, the easternmost part of the island. The ground temperature profile to 42‐m depth indicates recent warming of permafrost because the temperature decreases with depth. The temperature at 15‐m depth is −8.0°C, the same as the annual mean temperature at 1‐m depth at windswept sites along the transect. A simulation of the ground thermal regime, calibrated with local ground properties, equilibrated with the climate of 1899–1905, and driven by the climate of the region during the 20th century reproduces the present ground temperature profile and the annual temperature cycle for 1‐m depth at windswept sites. The model indicates that the mean annual temperatures at the top of permafrost and at 20‐m depth have increased by 2.6 and 1.9°C, respectively, since 1899–1905, and the perturbation in ground temperature has reached about 120‐m depth. Active layer thickness measured in the terrain types studied on Herschel Island is about 55 cm, 15 to 25 cm greater than field data from these units collected in 1985.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".