FOREST DYNAMICS AFTER SUCCESSIVE SPRUCE BUDWORM OUTBREAKS IN MIXEDWOOD FORESTS
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In order to assess the long-term spatiotemporal influence of the spruce budworm in sub-boreal mixedwood forests, we studied the effect of three successive outbreaks in a region of western Quebec, Canada. We used dendrochronology to detect past outbreaks in three areas (111-185 ha), based on the recruitment age of balsam fir (Abies balsamea) and on growth patterns of white spruce (Picea glauca), the two main host species of this defoliating insect. We also used a series of aerial photographs taken between 1935 and 2003 to evaluate overstory mortality and post-outbreak succession patterns in these same areas. Individual outbreaks had a spatially homogenous impact on host species throughout the region, but successive outbreaks differed in intensity: the two outbreaks around 1910 and 1980 caused widespread mortality in the overstory, but an outbreak around 1945 had little impact, probably because the forest mosaic had not yet recuperated from the 1910 outbreak. No clear outbreak was detected in the later part of the 19th century. In portions of the study areas where the 1910 outbreak had a major impact, between 36% and 50% of the stands were reoccupied by balsam fir stands in the period up to the 1980 outbreak (cyclic succession), the rest being at least partly replaced by nonhost species such as Betula spp. Changes in forest composition after the 1910 outbreak were mostly associated with upper-slope positions in all study areas. The 1980 outbreak also had a higher impact than earlier outbreaks in lower-slope positions dominated by black spruce (Picea mariana)-balsam fir mixtures. These results suggest that, at the regional scale, the abundance of mature or over-mature balsam fir stands does not determine the outbreak cycle. When an outbreak occurs, however, its impact will be strongly constrained by forest characteristics such as stand composition and structure, which are themselves influenced by previous disturbances and slope position.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".