Use of adjoint sensitivity analysis to diagnose the CMC global analysis performance: A case study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The sensitivity of forecast errors to initial conditions obtained from the adjoint of a numerical weather prediction model provides new insights into the analysis errors responsible for poor short‐range to mediumrange forecasts. In recent years, we have developed a sensitivity analysis system based on the tangent linear and adjoint of the Global Environmental Multiscale model, in which an iterative procedure minimizing the shortrange forecast errors leads to the so‐called key analysis errors. These errors are dominated by a small number of atmospheric structures, those growing the most rapidly. The algorithm has proven very useful in understanding improvements to the three‐dimensional variational data assimilation (3D‐Var) system implemented in the Canadian Meteorological Centre operational suite in December 2001. The main difference between the old and the new 3D‐Var systems is the assimilation of temperature and surface pressure from surface and upper air stations as opposed to geopotential heights, additional Tiros Operational Vertical Sounder channels, new sources of observations such as temperature observations from aircraft, and wind and temperature from dropsondes. In this paper, we examine key analysis errors of the old 3D‐Var analysis, which led to a very poor 3‐day forecast of a severe winter storm that struck eastern Canada on 10 February 2001. In this case, the same 3‐day forecast from the new 3D‐Var analysis is much better. We compare the difference between the two 3D‐Var analyses and the key analysis errors. We find that the main key analysis errors, in terms of potential vorticity, is located along the west shore of southern California and is characterized by a strong baroclinic structure that has its maximum amplitude in the upper part of the troposphere. The difference between the two analyses is three times more energetic than the key analysis errors and its structure is much more barotropic in the troposphere. However, we show that the large improvement in the new 3D‐Var analysis stems mainly from the reduction of the analysis errors that project onto the key analysis structures.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".