Potential wood supply losses to spruce budworm in New Brunswick estimated using the Spruce Budworm Decision Support System
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Spruce Budworm Decision Support System (SBW DSS) was used to estimate potential volume losses to a future spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.)) outbreak in New Brunswick. The SBW DSS was implemented separately on each of the ten Crown Timber Licenses, using data from forest industry management plan timber yields and harvest schedules; values were then compiled for all of New Brunswick. Potential volume losses on privately owned forest (industrial freehold and private woodlots) were estimated by matching stand types with those for Crown land. Total potential volume losses of 83 million and 195 million m 3 of sprucefir (Picea spp. Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.) were predicted for "normal" and "severe" budworm outbreak scenarios, defined based on past outbreaks in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia and assumed to start in 2000. Simulated timber supply losses were 42 million, 40 mil-lion, and 1 million m 3 on Crown, freehold, and federal land, respectively, under a normal outbreak scenario, versus 99 million, 92 million, and 3 million m 3 under a severe outbreak scenario. On Crown land, 33% of the predicted loss in a severe outbreak occurred in stands scheduled for harvest over the next 30 years, 26% occurred in stands not scheduled for harvest for at least 30 years, and 41% was in the non-timber harvesting landbase (11% in Old Softwood Forest Habitat, 12% in Deer Wintering Areas, 14% in riparian buffers, and 3% in inaccessible areas). Harvest levels 1120 years in the future were very sensitive to reduction in yields caused by defoliation. Under a severe outbreak scenario, if 40% of the landbase was not protected for 2, 5, or 8 years to limit defoliation (simulating spraying the insecticide Bacillus thuringiensis, B.t.), 20072011 harvest level reductions of 4.0, 6.0, and 8.4 million m 3 , respectively, would be necessary. We conclude that the only way that planned harvest levels for New Brunswick can be maintained, under a future spruce budworm outbreak, is with effective targeted use of insecticides for forest protection. Key words: defoliation, growth reduction, mortality, protection planning
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".