Boreal forest CO<sub>2</sub> exchange and evapotranspiration predicted by nine ecosystem process models: Intermodel comparisons and relationships to field measurements
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Nine ecosystem process models were used to predict CO 2 and water vapor exchanges by a 150‐year‐old black spruce forest in central Canada during 1994–1996 to evaluate and improve the models. Three models had hourly time steps, five had daily time steps, and one had monthly time steps. Model input included site ecosystem characteristics and meteorology. Model predictions were compared to eddy covariance (EC) measurements of whole‐ecosystem CO 2 exchange and evapotranspiration, to chamber measurements of nighttime moss‐surface CO 2 release, and to ground‐based estimates of annual gross primary production, net primary production, net ecosystem production (NEP), plant respiration, and decomposition. Model‐model differences were apparent for all variables. Model‐measurement agreement was good in some cases but poor in others. Modeled annual NEP ranged from −11 g C m −2 (weak CO 2 source) to 85 g C m −2 (moderate CO 2 sink). The models generally predicted greater annual CO 2 sink activity than measured by EC, a discrepancy consistent with the fact that model parameterizations represented the more productive fraction of the EC tower “footprint.” At hourly to monthly timescales, predictions bracketed EC measurements so median predictions were similar to measurements, but there were quantitatively important model‐measurement discrepancies found for all models at subannual timescales. For these models and input data, hourly time steps (and greater complexity) compared to daily time steps tended to improve model‐measurement agreement for daily scale CO 2 exchange and evapotranspiration (as judged by root‐mean‐squared error). Model time step and complexity played only small roles in monthly to annual predictions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".