Modelling climate change impacts in the Peace and Athabasca catchment and delta: I—hydrological model application
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The Peace–Athabasca Delta (PAD) is an extensive freshwater delta fed by the confluence of the Peace and Athabasca rivers. The Peace River, with regulation at the W.A.C. Bennett Dam, has a direct influence on the hydrology and eco‐hydrology of the PAD. To investigate the relative roles of climate variability and flow regulation, the Peace and Athabasca watershed and delta were simulated using a distributed hydrologic model, WATFLOOD. The model was forced using historical, station‐observed data as well as climate change scenario temperature and precipitation data. The modelled hydrographs over the 24‐year simulation period were compared with measured values at the 14 streamflow stations with generally good agreement for volume and timing of flow, monthly estimates having a Nash–Sutcliffe (R2) of 0·76 and 0·72 for the Peace and Athabasca Rivers, respectively. However, the total of the monthly runoff estimates were positively biased by 19% and 29%, respectively (Peace River at Peace Point, Dv = 19%, Athabasca River at Ft. McMurray Dv = 29%). A comparison between estimated current and future climate scenarios revealed a significant shift towards an earlier melt season as well as elevated winter flows for both river systems. The uniform application of temperature and precipitation change yields a non‐uniform response. The lower elevations of the Athabasca system show trends towards increased streamflow volumes; however, the higher elevations of the Peace River system may experience increased evaporative flux which will more fully compensate for higher precipitation resulting in only slightly increased streamflow under changed climate. The degree and direction of estimated change in streamflow are heavily dependant on the climate change scenario. Copyright © 2006 Crown in the right of Canada. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".