Neural tube defect rates before and after food fortification with folic acid
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Since 1998, enriched cereal grains sold in the United States have been fortified with folic acid, to reduce the incidence of neural tube defects (NTDs). The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently reported that NTD rates have decreased 26% since fortification, but that additional effort is needed to achieve the national goal of a 50% reduction. However, accurate determination of NTD rates requires counting antenatally detected cases; the CDC study noted that the number of prenatally diagnosed cases was likely underestimated. METHODS AND RESULTS: We examined studies from the United States and Canada that compared rates of NTDs before and after very similar fortification programs were instituted in each country. U.S. studies had incomplete ascertainment of prenatally diagnosed NTD cases, and as a result, underreported the number of NTDs prevented. Canadian studies, in which ascertainment was more complete, showed decreases in NTD rates up to 54%. CONCLUSIONS: There is a strong correlation between the completeness of ascertainment and the percentage decrease in NTD rates. Studies that identify cases best show that folic acid fortification is preventing around 50% of NTDs. The percentage of NTDs that are folate-preventable in the United States is uncertain, but is probably 50-60%. Thus, we may be quite close to achieving the optimum level of protection at current fortification levels.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it