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Record W2078727016 · doi:10.1029/2011eo110005

Mechanisms for Predictability of Polar Climate

2011· article· en· W2078727016 on OpenAlexaff
Theodore G. Shepherd

Bibliographic record

VenueEos · 2011
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEarth and Planetary Sciences
TopicArctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
Canadian institutionsUniversity of Toronto
Fundersnot available
KeywordsPredictabilityClimatologyEnvironmental scienceClimate modelClimate changePolarSea iceContext (archaeology)ArcticGlobal warmingGeographyOceanographyGeology

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Workshop on Seasonal to Multi‐Decadal Predictability of Polar Climate; Bergen, Norway, 25–29 October 2010 ; Over the past few decades the two Earth poles have exhibited drastically different behavior. The Arctic has warmed, as expected from the polar amplification of global warming, although the observed rate of summertime sea ice retreat is at the upper limit of climate model predictions. At the same time, Antarctic sea ice extent is increasing, contrary to model predictions. However, natural variability in polar regions is large, with substantial power at multidecadal time scales. All this leads to considerable uncertainty concerning the future evolution of polar climate over the next few decades. To address this issue, the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) convened a workshop to assess scientists' current knowledge of the predictability of polar climate and identify physical mechanisms that could be exploited to improve predictive capability. The workshop participants included experts in observations, theory, processes, and modeling, and they looked at both polar regions in the context of their coupling with the global climate system.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.027
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.019
GPT teacher head0.200
Teacher spread0.181 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations2
Published2011
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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