Rapid morphological change in stream beetle museum specimens correlates with climate change
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract 1. Climate change has been occurring at unprecedented rates and its impacts on biological populations is beginning to be well documented in the literature. For many species, however, long‐term records are not available, and trends have not been documented. 2. Using museum specimens from southern USA, we show that the stream‐dwelling beetle Gyretes sinuatus has shown an 8% increase in body size and change in body shape (fineness ratio) from 1928 to 1988. Any directional morphological change observed over time could be an indicator of a microevolutionary response. 3. During these 60 years, there have also been changes in temperature, precipitation, and location of collection sites. Unlike the global trend, mean annual temperature in the region has decreased, and furthermore, total annual precipitation has increased. By investigating how these various ecological and geographical variables may affect body size and shape, we can examine which pressures may promote larger and/or thinner beetles. 4. Results indicate that mean annual temperature was the most predictive variable for the change in size and shape. We suggest there is an adaptive role for temperature on body size and shape of stream dwelling organisms. 5. We found that museum specimens can be invaluable resources of information when collection date and location information is available. We promote the use of such specimens for future studies of the morphological response to climate change.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".