Is there a kink in consumers' threshold value for cost‐effectiveness in health care?
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: A reproducible observation is that consumers' willingness-to-accept (WTA) monetary compensation to forgo a program is greater than their stated willingness-to-pay (WTP) for the same benefit. Several explanations exist, including the psychological principle that the utility of losses weighs heavier than gains. We sought to quantify the WTP-WTA disparity from published literature and explore implications for cost-effectiveness analysis accept-reject thresholds in the south-west quadrant of the cost-effectiveness plane (less effect, less cost). METHODS: We reviewed published studies (health and non-health) to estimate the ratio of WTA to WTP for the same program benefit for each study and to determine if WTA is consistently greater than WTP in the literature. RESULTS: WTA/WTP ratios were greater than unity for every study we reviewed. The ratios ranged from 3.2 to 89.4 for environmental studies (n=7), 1.9 to 6.4 for health care studies (n=2), 1.1 to 3.6 for safety studies (n=4) and 1.3 to 2.6 for experimental studies (n=7). CONCLUSIONS: Given that WTA is greater than WTP based on individual preferences, should not societal preferences used to determine cost-effectiveness thresholds reflect this disparity? Current convention in cost-effectiveness analysis is that any given accept-rejection criterion (e.g. $50 k/QALY gained) is symmetric - a straight line through the origin of the cost-effectiveness plane. The WTA-WTP evidence suggests a downward 'kink' through the origin for the south-west quadrant, such that the 'selling price' of a QALY is greater than the 'buying price'. The possibility of 'kinky cost-effectiveness' decision rules and the size of the kink merits further exploration.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.017 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it